Why Trump Can Win: 'It’s Not Your Fault', I Google Therefore I Am, Social Media & Teenaged Pregnancy, No Sex Pls We're Japanese

What I’m listening to.

Concerto grosso in E Minor, Op. 3, No. 3: IV. Allegro

To repeat: Trump and Sanders' economic messages are playing to the same group of voters: disfranchaised by trade deals, abandoned by a small government philosophy that created worst in class justice, education, health, transportation, and inter-generational outcomes based on the myth of ‘rugged individualism’. 

To add: Free trade is a wonderful thing, time and time again economists have proven that it creates enormous wealth for a country ‘on the whole’, and historians have shown it is usually associated with rising political and social liberty. The perennial problem of course is that free trade always creates tremendous disruption for thousands even millions of individuals often concentrated in one geography, and where the state is idle, in many cases it is a permanent road out of the middle class, down, not up. 

When asked if I supported free trade when I ran both for the NDP (2006) and the Liberals (2012) I learned not to answer, “Yes I support free trade but only when the government is committed to investing in the health and education of Canadians ...” because no one heard the part after ‘but’. 

I learned instead to answer, “Provided the government invests billions in the health and education of Canadians to give them the skills to adjust, I support free trade.” 

Of course now I would start, “Provided the government provides a guaranteed annual income and invests ...”

This from a speech I gave four years ago, The Year of Living Dangerously:

Quote -- “The US is also paying the price for a protracted period of under-investing in best in class education and health outcomes, and tolerating Great Gatsby-like widening income inequality. What is becoming clear, as the fabric of our societies are being frayed by constant economic crises, is that it is the state and civil society that stand between individual citizens and the unpredictable forces of global economic change.

And nowhere in the developed world is this more obvious than in the United States. When my wife Taeko and I lived in Boston we were struck by how fearful Americans were; well in the United States middle income families seem to live over a trap door that can be suddenly sprung open by unemployment, divorce, an accident or even ill health.

And lower income families well they live directly underneath.”

Here’s the point, what Trump and Sanders are saying is: ‘it’s not your fault, and I will fix it.”

Good Will Hunting -- It's Not Your Fault

It’s working.

Trump Democrats

Financial Times -- Trump Democrats shake up US election

Many white, working-class voters feel abandoned by party of Obama

Quote -- “I haven’t pulled a 40-hour week in six months. I’ve got a mortgage and a kid and a wife to support,” Mr Catoe said. “Trump just seems like he understands what we’re out here fighting and working for.”

Google for the Truth

New York Times -- Googling Is Believing: Trumping the Informed Citizen

About a week before he used the national political stage to ask viewers to think about Donald Trump’s “finger” size, Marco Rubio told the audience during another recent Republican presidential debate to Google “Donald Trump and Polish workers.” They did.

Selfies surely are the real reason. (ed’s note -- a dear friend of mine in Victoria told me on the golf course that a girlfriend of his told him that with the internet, “people didn’t need each other anymore to have sex.” Maybe it’s showing up in the numbers.

Telegraph -- How teenage pregnancy collapsed after birth of social media

Have Facebook and Snapchat helped stop teenagers having sex? New figures show teenage pregnancies plunging to record low since social media explosion

Related.

Guardian -- Why have young people in Japan stopped having sex?

What happens to a country when its young people stop having sex? Japan is finding out… 

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Twin Virtues: Inequality of Outcomes & Equality of Opportunity©

Twin Virtues

Ultimately, the most successful societies find the balance between the twin virtues of inequality of outcomes and equality of opportunity.

The new politics must marry the twin virtues of unequal outcomes and equality of opportunity.

When too few get too much everybody loses.

Feminism is about women living their lives on their own terms, marshalling the resources of the society to make that possible, and men embracing this as vital to a successful society and their own liberation.

Can it be that striving for equality of opportunity however imperfect the process not only benefits the individual but also creates benefits for the society that are unintended but wonderful?

Economics must be a 'moral enterprise' as much as politics claims to be. Economic outcomes need to be framed in terms of right and wrong not just efficiency if only because these often align in surprising ways that are good for society and the economy.

My vision of Canada is that any Canadian child from a family of limited circumstance can expect to have a chance at lifetime of unlimited opportunities.

Free trade is a wonderful thing. Time and time again economists have proven that free trade creates enormous wealth for each country 'on the whole'. Historians have shown that free trade is usually associated with rising political, social and cultural liberty. The perennial problem is that free trade always creates tremendous disruption for thousands even millions of individuals often concentrated in one geography, and where the state is idle, not investing in best in class instruments of social justice, free trade can be a permanent ticket out of the middle class, down, not up.

Tax policy should be founded on the principle of generating steady tax revenues sufficient to maximise environmentally sustainable economic growth in order to fund fair government.

Public policy should be designed to decrease inequality before the law and increase equality of opportunity.

Capitalism is not the problem; the problem is what we do with capitalism.

Content is always more difficult to argue than conspiracy.

Let the state regulate and the market operate (most things).

Welfare strategies are best designed as a hand up, not as a hand out.

Political debate should not be fact free fighting.

Explanation lasts longer than eloquence.

Always favour empowerment over dependency.

The most enduring public figures are embraced for the causes they fought for and not the concept of themselves they hoped others would remember them by.

Find your voice and don't be the echo of somebody else.

It is possible to operate on two different levels: the practical, cautious and conservative; and the realm of ideas, open, free, and radical.